Day 2

Indexes snapped back, and finished 5% on the upside. The market volatility is insane, the movements percentage are reminiscent of the dot come days.

China devalued the RMB 4 times in less than 2 weeks. In addition, they are selling off their US treasury reserves to infuse capital into the Chinese mkts. This game is not going to end well bc mkts are artificially inflated by gaming the capital mkts instead of companies reinvesting capital into actual R&D, new products, manufacturing, and creating consumer demand.

US companies are playing the same game by borrowing money at zero percent, and buying back shares to prop up their mkt values even though they have not spent any money to create new products nor reinvest the capital back into the company.

The whipsaw action gives off an illusion that an extremely weak world economy can be recovered in a day. It needs several quarters to stabilize and recover. Welcome to the new norm of a downtrending mkt.

VX 23

VIX 30, still a lot of fear in the mkts

ES +15

NQ +42

Tf +5

YM +134

ZB 154’24, deflated due to China selling US treasuries.

6A hit an all time low

CL recovered a little, no interest until confirmed reversal

GC, SI trended lower as mkts recovered

HG traded lower, always a good play as it trades within a predictable range

FXI, ASHR stabalized from free fall

 

-5% Open, -5% Close

NQ futures were halted 3 times via LIMIT DOWN rules of 5% or more before the mkts opened. Ultimately opened at 3930 before trading lower to 3908. This is a 13% drop in the last 4 trading sessions.

Something continues to be seriously wrong with the mkts where some DOW components such as GE traded -20% prior to the opening bell.

VX futures traded as high as 27, when the current month VX future was only 15 after becoming the active contract.

VIX, the volatility index traded as high as 53, where it was averaging between 11-14 last week.

ES – 100

NQ – 200

TF – 55 (as low as -80)

YM – 700 (as low as -1000)

ZB continue to look above 161 – 161’15 and fail. The trade of the day was SHORT ZB every time above 160.

6E Euros trended higher as US dollars traded lower.

6J Yen trended higher as US dollars trader lower.

6A Aussie dollar lower bc it is a proxy to the Chinese RMB.

CL continues its downtrend as 38.06 as OPEC has not taken any action to slow down flooding the mkts with increased supply of crude oil. Go long only when uptrend is confirmed with 1) improvement of world economy, 2) OPEC decrease supply, 3) API + EIA reports on increase usage.

GC, SI gold and silver not a safety vehicle when mkts make extreme moves.

HG opened low at 2.20 worries of China’s decrease demand for copper.

NG, RB lows as the season rolls to more temperate Fall months.

KC coffee crushed to 120 level.

DX dovish FMOC meeting minutes last week started the selling off of the US dollar. Without higher rates, it becomes less desirable to hold US dollars as IOUs.

EDZ emerging markets very bearish.

FXI, ASHR – China ETFs continues to trade lower.

 

 

 

Mkts going lower

There are a few things that are certain.

US markets are going lower.

  1. China is deep in the hole with their economy.
  2. Greece is in the dumps with no money.
  3. Brazil protesting for impeachment of their president.
  4. Russian economy not recovering.

With such a big mess, Yellen cannot raise rates no matter how you slice it.

  1. Mkts are rattled to learn that external events are putting Fed’s planned actions against their heels.

Oil to 30.

  1. Too much supply, not enough demand.
  2. US rigs are not shutting down.
  3. Iran has plenty of oil stored in tankers.
  4. China not using up as much oil; its economy struggling, and shifting over to electric vehicles.

Futures 08/18/2015

Strong housing data reversed the mkts yesterday. China -6% overnight. Crude supply glut (API numbers later Tuesday, EIA numbers on Wednesday)

  • VX – 13.96, not a good trading product, will consider entry at 13.00
  • SPX – 2102.44, bounced off intraday low of 2079.3 after the housing data
  • ES – 2095.25, short into the rallies, missed a good short at 2103
  • NQ – 4554
  • TF – 1220, nice recovery to highs of 1224.8. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17469
  • ZB – 158’22, traded higher to 159’11
  • ZN – 127’215
  • 6E – 1.106
  • 6J – .0080485, reenter at .008000
  • 6A – .7342, is a proxy for the Chinese Yuan, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.570, british pound in an uptrend since RMB devaluation
  • 6C – .7629
  • 6M – .06063, trading lower, possible entry at .06045
  • CL – 42.19, $500 per roll. Not a good product. sell covered calls against long
  • GC – 1122, as high as 1120 precious metals holding up
  • SI – 15.20, precious metals holding up
  • HG – 2.2845, all time low at 2.2805, lower due to China mess, adjusted for 2.2810 entry
  • AA – 9.43, does no one need aluminum?
  • NG – 2.707, down due to cooler summer weather. $400 per roll. adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • RB – 1.6447
  • KC – 134.95
  • ZW – 500
  • ZC – 374.50
  • ZS – 910.75
  • EDZ – 44.33, more bearish on world mkts
  • DX – 96.84, stabilizing at 96.50

Futures 08/17/2015

Oil a few ticks off the lows. Bonds higher. Copper lower. 6M almost attractive.

  • VX – 14.15, will consider entry at 13.00
  • SPX – 2091.54
  • ES – 2088.50, short into the rallies
  • NQ – 4533, unchanged
  • TF – 1211, nice recovery. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17443, unchanged
  • ZB – 158’17, trading higher
  • ZN – 127’160
  • 6E – 1.1100
  • 6J – .008032, reenter at .008000
  • 6A – .7351, is a proxy for the Chinese Yuan, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.5650, british pound in an uptrend since RMB devaluation
  • 6C – .7611
  • 6M – .06065, trading lower, possible entry at .06045
  • CL – 42.05, traded as low as 41.35, blew through previous lows. sell covered calls against long
  • GC – 1116, as high as 1120 precious metals holding up
  • SI – 15.23, as high as 15.585, precious metals holding up
  • HG – 2.3340, lower due to China mess, adjusted for 2.30 entry
  • AA – 9.41, does no one need aluminum?
  • NG – 2.769, adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • RB – 1.6737
  • KC – 136
  • ZW – 504
  • ZC – 376.25
  • ZS – 915.50
  • EDZ – 42.99, emerging mkts bear
  • DX – 96.76, stabilizing at 96.50

Futures 08/16/2015

Tons of volatility for the past week, and provided for much of the trading action. By the end of the week, we finished slightly higher in the es minis. RMB stabalized, the Chinese government assured the mkts that they will not be devaluing it, and simply allow the mkts to dictate the RMB levels. Mean while protests are happening in Brazil, will see how mkts react Monday morning.

  • VX – 14.20, will consider entry at 13.00
  • SPX – 2091.54
  • ES – 2091, recovered, short into the rallies
  • NQ – 4534, too strong of an index to short, techs rebounded
  • TF – 1210, nice recovery. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17446, recovered
  • ZB – 158’08, continues to trade weaker. look to sell puts against the short shares once ZBs drop a little lower
  • ZN – 127’125
  • 6E – 1.1105
  • 6J – .008046, reentered at .008000
  • 6A – .7359, is a proxy for the Chinese Yuan, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.5650, british pound in an uptrend since RMB devaluation
  • 6C – .7636
  • 6M – .06086, possible entry at .06045
  • CL – 42.05, traded as low as 41.35, blew through previous lows. sell covered calls against long
  • GC – 1113.6, as high as 1120 precious metals holding up
  • SI – 15.2, as high as 15.585, precious metals holding up
  • HG – 2.3445, adjusted for 2.30 entry
  • AA – 9.41, does no one need aluminum?
  • NG – 2.773, adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • RB – 1.6835
  • KC – 137
  • ZW – 506
  • ZC – 375
  • ZS – 916
  • EDZ – 42.99, emerging mkts bear
  • DX – 96.62, stabilizing at 96.50

Futures 08/13/2015

Mkts recovered late day 08/12 from the selloff. Bonds selling off from its highs, flight to safety is subdued. It was a good day to be selling premium when VX was as high as 16.

  • VX – 14.16, complacency returns, will consider entry at 13.00
  • SPX – 2086.05
  • ES – 2090, recovered, short into the rallies
  • NQ – 4548, too strong of an index to short
  • TF – 1211, nice recovery. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17421, recovered
  • ZB – 157’28, look above 160 and rejected. cover the lower entries (sept rate hikes). dont ever trust what the fed says any more. just follow the trend. investors are rotating their bets over to equities
  • ZN – 127’220
  • 6E – 1.1117
  • 6J – .00803, reentered at .008000
  • 6A – .7326, is a proxy for the Chinese Yuan, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.5623
  • 6C – .7691
  • 6M – .06122
  • CL – 43.43, previous lows 42.41
  • GC – 1116.9, precious metals holding up
  • SI – 15.320, precious metals holding up
  • HG – 2.3475, adjusted for 2.30 entry
  • AA – 9.51
  • NG – 2.903, traded as high as 2.934, adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • RB – 1.751
  • KC – 132.65
  • ZW – 499
  • ZC – 371.50
  • ZS – 919.50
  • EDZ – 43.02, emerging mkts bear
  • DX – 96.57, bounced off lows of 95.945, higher dollar continues to crush every non US currency

Futures 08/12/2015

China devalued the RMB a 2nd time, creating mkt panic. Currencies normalizing in the morning with DX trading lower.

  • ES – 2061, traded as low as 2053
  • NQ – 4471, traded as low as 4454
  • TF – 1196, traded as low as 1191. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17212, traded as low as 17207
  • VX – 15.45, spike with a increase sense of fear, will consider entry at 13.00
  • ZB – 159’17, traded as high as 160’22, flight to safety. cover the lower entries (sept rate hikes). dont ever trust what the fed says any more. just follow the trend. China devaluing its currency is shocking the investors to take safety in bonds
  • ZN – 128’040, trades as high as 128’220
  • 6E – 1.1147, look for 1.08 entry
  • 6J – .0080405, reentered at .008000
  • 6A – .7323, is a proxy for the Chinese Yuan, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.5578
  • 6M – .06128
  • CL – 43.85, lower chinese yuan makes oil more expensive for china
  • GC – 1116.9, flight to gold for safety
  • SI – 15.320, bounced higher
  • HG – 2.3275, traded as high as low as 2.2925, adjusted for 2.30 entry
  • NG – 2.874, adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • RB – 1.7231
  • KC – 137.15, moving higher from previous lows
  • ZW – 509
  • ZC – 390
  • ZS – 967
  • DX – 96.54, higher dollar continues to crush every non US currency

Futures 08/11/2015

China devalued its currency, sending ripples through the mkts; Google restructuring into Alphabet; Twitter tweeted execs bought some shares

  • ES – 2086, traded as high as 2101
  • NQ – 4550, traded as high as 4584
  • TF – 1210, traded as high as 1221. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17437, traded as high as 17573
  • VX – 14.02, traded as low as 13.5, will consider entry at 13.00
  • ZB – 158’10, traded as low as 156’20, cover the lower entries (sept rate hikes). dont ever trust what the fed says any more. just follow the trend. China devaluing its currency is shocking the investors to take safety in bonds
  • ZN – 127’200, trades as low as 126’305
  • 6E – 1.1027, look for 1.08 entry
  • 6J – .008012, reentered at .008000
  • 6A – .7311, is a proxy for the Chinese Yuan, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.5586
  • 6M – .06122
  • CL – 44.22, lower chinese yuan makes oil more expensive for china
  • GC – 1110.7, flight to gold for safety
  • SI – 15.285, bounced higher
  • HG – 2.342, traded as high as low as 2.429, adjusted for 2.3085 entry
  • NG – 2.812, adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • RB – 1.6715
  • KC – 134.65, moving higher from previous lows
  • ZW – 520
  • ZC – 394
  • ZS – 984
  • DX – 97.20, higher dollar continues to crush every non US currency

Futures 08/10/2015

  • ES – 2079, was as low as 2062. not at a good spot if it doesnt show any strength after China had popped 5% overnight
  • NQ – 4533, was as low as 4480
  • TF – 1207, was as low as 1196. trying to exit TF positions that was entered at a bad location
  • YM – 17354, was as low as 17221
  • VX – 14.10, was as high as 14.93, will consider entry at 13.00
  • ZB – 158’04, was as high as 158’23, cover the lower entries (sept rate hikes). dont ever trust what the fed says any more. just follow the trend
  • ZN – 127’090
  • 6E – 1.0941, look for 1.08 entry
  • 6J – .008020, was as high as .00806, allowing me to close out positions, will reenter at .008000
  • 6A – .7343, adjusted for .725 entry
  • 6B – 1.546
  • 6M – .06131, non US currencies moving higher
  • CL – 43.92 not holding up at all, lower for longer if world economies are not picking up on demand for crude while production continues at all time highs
  • GC – 1093.80, small flight to gold for safety
  • SI – 14.88, bounced higher, adjusted for 14.45 entry
  • HG – 2.351, traded as low as 2.3075, adjusted for 2.3085 entry
  • NG – 2.839, adjusted for 2.7 entry (missed too many opportunities)
  • KC – 127.55, moving higher from previous lows
  • ZW – 512
  • ZC – 387.50
  • ZS – 969
  • DX – 97.945, higher dollar continues to crush every non US currency