Futures 07/31/2015

  • ES, NQ, TF, YM – roared back to previous higher levels, led by NQs. remains an uptrend, ES meeting resistance at 2105, NQ meeting resistance at 4600
  • VX – steady 14.00, will consider entry at 13.00
  • ZB, ZN – moved to 155’05, traders are pricing it at no rate hikes as world economy is taken into consideration
  • 6E – 1.098 no change
  • 6J – .008052, looking for .00804 entry
  • 6A – .7239, triggered .724 entry
  • CL – 47.54, dropped like a rock, continuing downtrend, sold Sept 45 Puts
  • GC – 1079.6, everyone selling gold, entry at near overnight low 1079.3
  • SI – 14.535, triggered 14.51 entry
  • HG – crushed back to 2.36, indication of a weakening world economy, the previous day rebound to 2.38 could not hold up.
  • NG – trading at 2.772, erratic range, staying away until it gets near 2.6
  • KC – 125.15 continuing its uptrend
  • DX – holding steady at 97.37, commodities are negatively affected by higher US dollars

Futures 07/30/2015

  • ES, NQ, TF, YM – indexes traded higher after the Fed announcement that they were still watching the economic data before raising rates. They also mentioned stronger labor mkt, and improving housing mkts
  • VX – crushed back to 14.05
  • ZB, ZN – went as low as 153’13 overnight before bouncing back to 154 post FOMC recap
  • 6E – 1.096 due to stronger dollar
  • 6J – .008045, took a position at .008047
  • 6A – .725, waiting for .724 entry
  • CL – 49.35, the weekly movement shows a reversal pattern
  • GC – 1085, stronger dollar affecting commodities priced in dollars coupled with rotation back into riskier equity assets
  • SI – 14.61, was as high as 14.90. stronger dollar
  • HG – crushed back to 2.36, indication of a weakening world economy
  • NG – traded as high as 2.895, weather extremes. cooler weather prevailing and forcing back to 2.837
  • KC – 124.90 continuing its rebound off the lows of 119.85
  • DX – trending higher, making commodities priced in dollars more exprensive and less desirable

Futures 07/29/2015

  • ES, NQ, TF, YM – continuing its uptrend from the Tuesday session. TWTR sold off and no one cares.
  • VX – 14.32 vs 16 about 2 sessions ago
  • ZB, ZN – losing some ground as Fed will make an announcement at 2PM
  • 6E – moving a bit higher, stuck in range 1.107
  • 6J – .00809
  • 6A – no movement .7298
  • CL – bounced off its previous lows 47.73, concerns linger regarding oversupply and excess inventory
  • GC – 1096.2 little interest is shown for the precious metals
  • SI – 14.625 doing better than gold
  • HG – 2.4115 an indication that the world economy may have bottomed as copper demand is picking up
  • NG – 2.852 weather forecast is hitting the extreme end
  • KC – coffee trading near all time lows
  • DX – trading slightly lower 96.705

Futures 07/28/2015

  • ES, NQ, TF, YM – bounced off the Monday lows. Ignoring China’s smaller overall moves where Chinese government is talking about saving its capital markets. Overnight European mkts got a lift where Greece creditor are into their 2nd day of talk about a new lifeline
  • VX – dropping 5% as SPY 500 and Nasdaq is rising
  • ZB, ZN – giving back its gains as Fed starts its 2 day meeting
  • 6E – Lower at 1.104
  • 6J – Lower at .00808
  • 6A – continue to rise off its lows .7296
  • CL – lower lows at 47.03, fearing China economy is not going to demand as much crude oil. BP warned that lower oil will be lower for longer. Over supply, market weakness, and Iran sanctions lifting
  • GC – lower at 1090.9
  • SI – stuck in a range 14.55
  • HG – nice bounce off its lows 2.377, still playable on the long side with a 2.35 entry
  • NG – 2.789 stuck in a range
  • DX – higher in the early morning

Futures 07/27/2015

  • ES – continues sliding with China index down 8%
  • NQ -2nd session downtrend
  • TF – almost at Greek crisis levels when it was 1207
  • YM – 17400 level
  • VX – up 3% @ 15.40
  • ZB – rising as some are not expecting Fed to raise rates until December. Flight to safety from world mkts spiking up ZBs
  • ZN – rising with ZBs
  • 6E – 1.107, DX is lower
  • 6J – .00812, DX is lower
  • 6A – hovering at low range
  • CL – not looking good. Dropping even with DX lower
  • GC – fear that China is not buying gold
  • SI – 14.56, China fear
  • HG – 3.58, world economic slow down. China leading the way
  • NG – stuck in range. 2.768
  • DX – lower 96.75

Futures 07/25/2015

  • ES – all time highs were 2134, given back some but not quite Greece / Euro crisis levels yet. Directional bias will be affected by China and Greece shenanigans. In addition, many companies are missing their revenue numbers while still trying their best to fudge EPS numbers (held naked PUTs, bad trade as assumption was not aligned with mkt movement)
  • NQ – Been hovering at its all time highs while the 3 other index retraced. Thursday and Friday is an indication of the break that no index is immune to the overall mkts. Notable companies reporting next week, FB LNKD, TSLA, TWTR (kept adding to losers, when you must never average losses)
  • TF – retesting Greece / Euro crisis lows. Look for entry at 1215
  • YM – back at levels during the Greece / Euro crisis. Might be a good entry at 17300 level
  • VX – jumped 4% when mkt indexes dropped 1%
  • ZB – retesting previous resistance level 154’23, Fed leaks indicate Fed rates will be raised once this year.
  • ZN – rising with ZBs
  • 6E – euro has been affected by the Greece bailouts and retraced to weekly low of 1.0817 before close the week at 1.0991. Looking to reenter at 1.07, probably unlikely to see these lows again.
  • 6J – waiting on .00804-.00805 for reentry
  • 6A – at all time lows .726
  • CL – been a week long downward trend as report point to excess build in inventory. Loss 2.5 dollars for the week. The long term outlook is not good until price levels can stabilize from this gradual downtrend. (refused to follow the tape, and paid the price)
  • GC – gold sold off on Sunday from 1130 to 1080. Bounced off the lows, and retouched on Friday 1072. Bounced off lows again and closed 1098. Showing support at these levels.
  • SI – silver sold off along with gold. Touched a low of 14.33 before closing at 14.71 on Friday. A good entry is under 14.50
  • HG – copper reached its all time lows of 2.35 on Friday. 2.35-2.6 are decent entries to the long side. (bottoming range, still a good trade)
  • NG – natural gas has been stuck in no mans land for the past week, and offers no directional bias. A reasonable entry is under 2.6
  • DX – approaching its all time highs of 100. Making commodities priced in dollars more expensive, leading to a drop in commodities futures.

Google should buy Slack instead of Twitter

I was wrong about Twitter. I realize that I am not a Twitter power user, and Twitter has a problem of retaining a base of non power users. It has a real problem because its power users base simply cannot sustain the platform.

Only Twitter’s power users have a big audience, while a non power user would consider themselves lucky to get some bots to follow them. This is the big divide between Facebook and Twitter, where everyone on Facebook has an audience regardless of who you are because of your friends and family.

When you don’t have an audience on Twitter, you leave. It is that simple. Social media needs a two way street to grow. Twitter continues to have difficulty growing the two way street for the massive base of non-power users.

Now Slack is a good platform. It is a combination of Google Chat and Google+ and Twitter on steroids. It takes a no nonsense approach to real time messaging and sharing of any media.

Long /NG

Long natural gas futures. Today it traded within the previous day’s range even though there was plenty of bad news about supply buildup.

Been wrong

Never been so wrong these past few days directionally. Account has been cut down to size due to swinging for the fences and missed.

Short 5/6 TSLA calls on earnings play.

Short 5/6 BABA calls on earnings play.

TWTR Missed

When you thought you know something, TWTR throws you a surprise with a 2 standard deviation move hurting all the PUT premium sellers.

500 million users visit their homepage and do nothing. That’s unacceptable, and the underlying was punished heavily.

Take a page out of Reddit. Don’t force users to click on a theme or topic.