TWTR, 6E, YM

Building a position on TWTR before they report earnings on 04/24. It is going to be a very good earnings report. The Twitter ads are very effective as it is well integrated into the app. Not going to lie, but I have viewed video ads of Mad Max, ads of mobile apps that swipes from right to left, ads of the TPS reports guy, took a sponsored survey about brand recognition, and kept up with world news everyday via Twitter.

I have continued to use Twitter more and more while not signing into Facebook more than once this month.

6E euros continue to trend higher as the dollar loses strength. The play is to buy the dips.

The indexes fell hard today, and YM manage to get a semi bounce off its lows. The declines are overdone as a reaction to China’s government finally allowing short selling. China markets only account for 2-3% of world markets. This should have been a non-event.

 

China Facing Slower Growth

China’s facing a slow down in its economy, along with export slumps. Yet, the China markets continue on an uptrend tear.

Will the China markets realize that bad news is bad news no matter how you spin it?

The Markets Should Have Traded Lower

GE decided to do a buyback. This appears to be one last attempt to prop up its stock price while insiders get an opportunity to unload as much stock in the open markets as possible.

Buybacks typically indicate a lack of product innovation, and business expansion because the business managers have absolutely no idea what to do with the money that can be applied to expand its business operations and business pipelines. It is a short sighted move, and devalues a company in the long run.

GE will be pegged at no growth for the foreseeable future, leading investors to look elsewhere.

Know the Range

Job numbers came out earlier, and I was preparing to take advantage of the spikes to the upside or downside.

The move at 8:29 gave me a head fake to the upside due to the TOS announcement that the trading markets were closed. Had to reverse and go short (taking a small loss in the process).

The proper setup was to set stop limit orders a few points outside the 2059 range of /es. It would have filled me on sell stops as it moved lower. Or vice versa and buy on the way up.

Develop Bearish Views

Building a bearish awareness has turned my portfolio around.

Playing the short side is now mentally as easy as the long side. Less waiting on perfect opportunities to go long, when short opportunities are plenty.

Am more aware of underlyings trading ranges before putting on a position. For example, seeing market highs in IWM, QQQ, and SPY leads me to look for short positions instead of going long.

VXX or UVXY

VXX and UVXY measures the volatility of the VIX.

They are both identical on intraday  charts. UVXY provides bigger intraday swings at a lower cost – better leverage on your daytrading dollars.

Zoom out to a 1 year chart, UVXY is a perennial loser due to drag. It gives up 4-5 handles compared to VXX even though they function exactly the same.

Maybe this is why UVXY cannot be shorted via shares while VXX can be shorted via shares.

If you are bearish and banking on a market crash,  then VXX is the better product for time horizons beyond a day with losing value due to drag.

Randomness

Assumptions can be right within minutes of a trade, or wrong within minutes, or takes a long time for it to be right, or forever wrong.

The game is to manage risk with the tools provided via options.

One of the few certainties in trading is that high volatility will contract, and low volatility will expand.

Took Loss on URBN

Took on a short URBN position that did not move with the declining markets.

Without a stop loss, the losses accumulated more than I expected. A setback nonetheless.

No more scalping of individual underlyings that are not ETFs or indexes because they don’t necessarily act right.

Scalped GPRO, and UVXY

Continued to scalp while overall portfolio value declines.

UVXY scalps have been batting over 1000%, and has been amazing how mechanical it is to get in and get out. Got in today after the AAPL presentation was over. While AAPL dragged the /nq lower, UVXY spiked a little.

I think the Apple Watch is very much Apple’s Google Glass. The biggest down side is that it needs be used with your iPhone. And who wants to charge a watch every night. Time will tell that this may fall flat.

Scalped GPRO. Took less profit after realizing that I had bad trade location instead of waiting longer. It was the right play.

ABBV, YY, AAPL, UVXY, CSIQ

Long UVXY at premarket 16.70 and dumped at 17.04 while it ran up to 18.50 – good results bad execution for a lack of stop loss.

Short AAPL when it was up 2% as the whole market was trending lower – decent results bad execution for a lack of a stop loss.

Short YY when it was up 8% while the market was down. Jumped the gun at closing out the order for .50 while missing out 2.5 handles because of paying attention to the noise rather than the charts. Good results bad execution for a lack of a stop loss.

Short CSIQ, tiny scratch for profit near close of day.

The recurring theme is the lack of a stop loss.

Long ABBV, one of my biggest losers for the past 2 days because I double dipped and went against the trend with a position that is too big. My scalping is holding up the portfolio value, but I don’t know if I can repeat the daily scalping results. This is typical of greed and fear.

The positive out of this is that it forces me to reevaluate my intraday plays more closely and cannot depend on holding plays overnight.